Mount Albert ByElection Results 2009

Colin James in the Stuff.co.nz today:

The jury has spoken. But does it speak for anywhere other than Mt Albert? And does it speak on anything but Mt Albert’s particularities?

His writeup highlights the possibility that National’s Melissa Lee dramatic loss in the Mount Albert byelection last weekend (13 June 2009) is a possibilit that the public is starting to reject National after the 2008 election win. It went on to cite the Timaru example in 1970s.

However, questions remain to be asked. The item that is missed out of the  analysis is the voter turnout rate. How many of the expected votes actually eventuate? Is there a general apathy in the region? Is Mount Albert now really a unison of, Labour vote, or could there be a large disappointment on National candidate leading to a lot of abandoned votes (which did not quite go over to Labour)? Is it really Labour, or is it simply “nothing”?

The results for the November 2008 election for Mount Albert (can be found here) shows as follows:

• Votes counted: 35,219
• Labour party: 14,894  -  Helen Clark: 20,157
• National party: 12,468  -  Ravi Musuku: 9,806
• Green party: 3,846  -  Jon Carapiet: 2,019
• ACT NZ: 1,227  -  Kathleen McCabe: 1,392

The results for the latest byelection 2009 (can be found here) shows as follows:

• Votes counted: 19,992
• Labour party / David Shearer: 12,613
• National party / Melissa Lee: 3,426
• Green party / Norman Russel: 2,418
• ACT NZ / John Boscawen: 943

I spy with my own little eyes that:

1. Votes counted are down by a whopping 42%. Yes the by-election results still says “preliminary” but I don’t think they are really declaring Shearer to be a winner if there are still more than 15,227 votes not yet counted? What does this signal? Apathy? Or just plain simple that National voters did not choose Melissa Lee (but did not choose Labour either).
2. Contrary to what the analysts say that this may signal increased Labour/Goff acceptance, Labour does not appear to increase its’ Mt. Albert foothold. The electoral population remains the same (unless somehow almost half are now dead or left) but the number of Labour votes remain at 10-15 thousands. If else, it signifies that Labour is losing it’s “Helen Effects”. The actual votes for Labour MP is down from Helen’s 20,157 to a mere 12,613. Could this even be a rejection on Goff instead of acceptance?
3. Similar to Labour, Green’s foothold remained relatively constant at two thousand -ish. It’s actually down by a few hundreds (3,846 to 2,418) most likely due to by-election being “less important than real election” in the people’s mind, but a few hundred may be okay to be analysed that way. Unfortunately, again, Labour’s missing 7,544 may be too big a number to be put on the same reason.
4. ACT NZ is sitting quietly on his 4th position, and the numbers remained relatively the same (just like Green’s).

What does this say? I can only say 3 options:

1. Labour did indeed increase its occupation on Mount Albert? Not likely. Judging by the number of vote per population, Labour’s foothold is in fact decreasing.
2. General Apathy? Not likely. If there were general apathy then all parties should have been affected the same. In this case Labour lost a bit of the votes which may indeed look like a limited apathy effect, National lost devastatingly large number of votes which is absolutely apathy-looking, but the other parties retained most of their votes.
3. Apathy against National? I can only blame Melissa Lee’s disastrous campaign on what seems like a rejection among the National voters. Connect the dots: National lost 9,042 votes, Mt. Albert lost 15,227, and Labour didn’t gain anything. I can only see that a lot of National voters just became apathetic swing voters.

There should be a law where if an electoral voting turnout is less than a quorum of 2/3 of the roll the voting results automatically become void and the cause of the apathy is to be investigated as soon as possible. Clearly, governance by minority is not the correct implementation of democracy.

Added 17/06/09:

I like LibertariaNZ Richard McGrath’s comment in Scoop.co.nz yesterday:

“Fewer than 50% of eligible people in Mt Albert actually voted. It is estimated that 52% of voters boycotted the poll, which makes None Of The Above the winner, beating the Labour candidate into second place. The Mt Albert seat in Parliament should be left vacant.”